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A second round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is currently under discussion, though nothing has been officially scheduled yet, a White House official told CNBC on Tuesday morning.

President Donald Trump later told the New York Post that the next U.S.-Iran talks “could be happening over next two days” in Islamabad.

He had initially told the outlet in a phone interview that additional negotiations could be “a little bit slow” and would likely happen in Europe, but called back about 30 minutes later with updated information, according to the Post.

The confirmation that the Trump administration is mulling further talks with Tehran followed prior reporting that the stalled peace negotiations could restart before a fragile two-week ceasefire is set to expire.

Officials from both countries could return to Pakistan to resume those talks, Reuters reported earlier Tuesday morning, citing Pakistani and Iranian officials.

“The coming rounds ​of talks can come sometime later this week or earlier next week. But nothing is finalised as of now,” an official at the Iranian Embassy in Islamabad told Reuters.

CNN and NBC News also reported that in-person negotiations could resume soon. The Iranian Embassy in Islamabad did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the reporting.

Talks between U.S. and Iranian negotiators in Islamabad last weekend ended without a deal in hand, as key sticking points on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions remained unresolved and each side accused the other of shifting the goalposts.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation alongside special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, said Monday that the next diplomatic move is Iran’s to make.

“Whether we have further conversations, whether we ultimately get to a deal, I really think the ball is in the Iranian court, because we put a lot on the table,” Vance told Fox News.

Top Iranian officials suggested after the failed talks in Islamabad that the U.S. acted in bad faith. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an X post that Tehran’s team was met with “maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade,” while Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the U.S. failed to gain Iran’s trust.

Trump responded to the scrapped talks by announcing a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the vital trade route that normally carries 20% of the world’s oil.

U.S. Central Command later specified that the blockade will apply to vessels “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.”

More than 10,000 U.S. sailors, Marines, and airmen are enforcing the blockade, along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft, CENTCOM said Tuesday.

“During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman,” CENTCOM said.

The blockade further chokes off traffic through the strait, which has been at a trickle despite Trump proclaiming on April 7 that a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran was subject to the route being fully reopened.

“We can’t let a country blackmail or extort the world, because that’s what they’re doing,” Trump said at the White House on Monday.

The ceasefire is currently set to expire next on April 21.

Despite the mounting tensions, the latest reporting and other signals are keeping hopes high that a deal could be on the way.

Oil prices, which had moved on initial reports that the negotiations could restart, fell on Tuesday morning, while stocks rose.

This is developing news. Please check back for updates.

Hello, this is Dylan Butts writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Markets appear to think a deal between Washington and Tehran is within reach.

Stocks extended their rally again on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 pushing toward record territory as investors bet that U.S.–Iran negotiations are gaining traction. 

But that optimism might be running ahead of reality. Talks have already stalled once, and instead of a full reopening, the Strait of Hormuz is now under a new U.S. blockade.

The stock market has continued rallying on hopes that a deal between the U.S. and Iran is taking shape, with a White House official telling CNBC on Tuesday that a second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is under discussion.

The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high, with Tuesday marking the index’s ninth positive session in 10, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq extended its streak to 10 consecutive advances. Asia-Pacific markets tracked Wall Street, opening higher on Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, oil prices extended recent declines. 

But a resolution to the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. Talks between U.S. and Iranian negotiators in Islamabad stalled last weekend, prompting Trump to announce a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital trade route that normally carries about 20% of global oil supply.

More than 10,000 U.S. sailors, Marines, and airmen are enforcing the blockade, alongside over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft, the U.S. Central Command said. 

The blockade further chokes off traffic through the strait, which has slowed to a trickle despite Trump’s earlier claim on April 7 that a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran would hinge on its full reopening.

A key sticking point between both sides regarding the ceasefire has been Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted the first direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in decades, though it was not immediately clear whether any framework for peace was reached.

The broader economic risks have continued to rear their head. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push the global economy toward a recession.

Meanwhile, experts told CNBC that Europe’s airline industry is at risk of a “systemic” jet fuel shortage in the next few weeks if the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, potentially leading to hundreds of flight cancellations.

The conflict is also raising tensions among major powers. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of being an unreliable global partner during the Middle East war, claiming it was hoarding oil supplies and enacting export restrictions ‌on some goods.

In corporate news, Meta and Broadcom announced an extended partnership to develop Meta’s custom in-house AI accelerators through 2029. 

Separately, Meta said Broadcom’s CEO, Hock Tan, told Meta last week that he has decided not to stand for reelection to Meta’s board, according to a filing. 

— Dylan Butts 

Central banks were buying gold at record levels. Here’s why they’re selling now.

Gold’s pullback is exposing a rare shift in the market: after years of relentless accumulation, some central banks are now selling bullion as Iran war-driven pressures force a scramble for cash.

Spot gold, which is currently trading at around $4,838 per ounce, has fallen about 10% from its late-January peak, slipping into correction territory even as geopolitical risks intensify. The move marks a stark reversal from last year’s rally, when central bank buying helped underpin prices despite rising interest rates.

“There has been notable selling of gold by central banks from a few market participants,” Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS Pamp, told CNBC.

— Ying Shan Lee

Oil prices extended declines after settling sharply lower Tuesday amid rising optimism that the Middle East conflict could see a diplomatic resolution.

U.S. crude oil futures for May delivery fell 0.88% to $90.4 per barrel as of 8:35 p.m. ET. Futures for international benchmark Brent for June delivery lost 0.31% $94.47 per barrel.

A second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations are being considered, though no official schedule has been set, a White House official told CNBC on Tuesday. 

President Donald Trump later said the talks could take place “over the next two days” in Islamabad, according to the New York Post. 

Trump had earlier indicated discussions were proceeding slowly and negotiations would likely be held in Europe, but called back shortly after with updated details, the report said. 

The renewed push for talks comes after earlier reports that talks aimed at resolving the Middle East conflict could resume ahead of the expiry of a fragile two-week ceasefire.

“Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy,” the IEA said in a report published Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs said in a note published Wednesday that flows through the strait remain constrained, running at just about 10% of normal levels, or roughly 2.1 million barrels per day on a four-day moving average.

The U.S. blockade targeting Iranian ports could further pressure remaining flows, with Washington reporting that several vessels had already turned back in the first 24 hours, even as transit via non-Iranian ports continues.

Goldman noted that disruptions to crude production in the Middle East appear less severe than initially feared. It estimates average shut-ins in the Persian Gulf at about 8 million barrels per day in March, below earlier expectations and lower than the International Energy Agency’s 10 million barrels per day estimate, partly due to higher use of storage and oil held on tankers.

Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.

Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday, with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, seeing about $60 billion in market volume year-to-date — more than the $51 billion in total prediction market volume in all of 2025.

Growth rates for the platforms rival the artificial intelligence boom, according to Bank of America. Analyst Julie Hoover in a note last week called Kalshi one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi — which controls more than 90% of the U.S. prediction market — has surged to more than $3 billion today from about $100 million a year ago, she wrote.

While prediction market volumes initially jumped in 2024 around the U.S. presidential election, they eventually surpassed those levels in 2025 as sports, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts became popular.

$1 trillion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani now estimates that total market volumes in 2026 will reach $240 billion, a 370% increase compared to last year. At a compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030, Chhugani sees prediction market trading volume of $1 trillion a year by the start of the next decade.  

Chhugani expects increased regulatory clarity at the federal level will boost the potential market, and that blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies is enabling more liquidity. The makeup of traded contracts is also likely to change, he said.

“We expect [the] institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,” he wrote. While sports contracts make up more than 60% of trading volume today, he sees that being cut in half by 2030. “We also expect hedging demand from corporates, [and] insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.”

While Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the space, new names are building a presence. Robinhood, DraftKings and Underdog are all starting or have already launched their own prediction market verticals, Bank of America’s Hoover said.

Public proxies

Robinhood and Coinbase Global are the key public market proxies for the private prediction market companies, Chhugani said. Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now a year old, generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue, and accounting for some 30% of Kalshi total volume. The market is the digital finance platform’s fastest-growing business, and could encourage Robinhood to develop its own exchange, the analyst said. 

While Chhugani’s long-range estimates assume the resolution of long-term regulatory risk, in the near-term state and federal regulators and the prediction markets themselves are engaged in a pitched battle. “Legal action is now pending in 14 states, plus another 4 congressional bills [are] also pending amid concerns around insider trading,” Hoover wrote. 

Some states have begun legal action against prediction markets, citing their authority to regulate sports betting, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is fighting states, claiming it has the only authority to regulate prediction markets. 

Still, Chhugani has faith that this won’t derail the multi-year outlook.

“Despite ongoing state-level legal challenges, we expect platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and public proxies (HOOD, COIN) to benefit from increasing regulatory clarity and growing alignment with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC) — a key driver of market legitimacy and mainstream adoption,” he wrote.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.

Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.

“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”

When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.

“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”

The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.

JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.

“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday during an earnings call that his bank was testing Mythos, though he declined to comment further.